Is the car culture dying?

Did you think the day would come when we'd ask this question?  What a monumental moment in time.  Perhaps on the cusp of taking a huge leap frog away from our century old fossil fuel economy.

Think of the social changes...ride sharing instead of isolated in cars, casting aside many traffic issues, pulling jobs out of one industry--automobile--and pushing them into many others, including mass transit, walking, biking, hybrid vehicle alternatives.  Cities will change.  People will change.  Life will change.

Thanks so the Washington Post for posing a question that, depending on how it gets answered, could change every aspect of life and bring our economy and environment much closer to balance.



Few technological breakthroughs have had the social and economic impact of the automobile. It changed America’s geography, spawning suburbs, shopping malls and sprawl as far as the eye could see. It redefined how we work and play, from the daily commute to the weekend trek to the beach. It expanded the heavy industry — steel-making, car production — that made the Midwest the economy’s epicenter for decades. And, finally but not least, the car became the quintessential symbol of American mobility, status and independence.

Now there are signs that the car and its many offshoots (SUVs, pickup trucks) are losing their grip on the American psyche and pocketbook. The car culture may be dying or, at any rate, slumping into a prolonged era of eclipse. The only question is whether the signs of change can be believed. It’s not clear.

Young Americans, particularly millennials (ages 18 to 35), have lost their zest for buying and driving cars, it’s said. Once upon a time, getting your driver’s license — typically at 16 or 17 — was a rite of passage. You were liberated from dependence on the parental chauffeur. It was a big step toward adulthood. But this landmark no longer seems to matter so much.

Just recently, the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) published figures — first reported on the Atlantic magazine’s CityLab website — indicating that the number of licensed drivers 16 or younger in 2014 had dropped 37 percent since 2009 and, at 1.08 million, was “the lowest number since the 1960s.”

More impressive, the trend seems long term. A report from the Highway Loss Data Institute cites studies showing that from 1983 to 2010 the share of 16-year-olds with a license fell from 46 percent to 28 percent ; over the same period, the share of licensed 17-year-olds declined from 69 percent to 46 percent .

Theories abound to explain this shift. One emphasizes cost; it’s too expensive to own a car, especially after the high unemployment and meager wage gains of the Great Recession. Uber and other on-demand transportation services make this choice more practical.

Other theories focus on lifestyles and values. Young Americans “just don’t think driving is cool — or even necessary — anymore,” said Fortune magazine. Cars pollute, contributing to global warming. Millennials disapprove. They are said to prefer cities where they can walk, bike or use buses to get to stores, restaurants and jobs.

The most fascinating theory is that the Internet has displaced the automobile. Both are social instruments, it’s argued. Instead of going to the mall, teens and others stay in touch through social media and texting. It’s cheaper and more convenient.


Maybe. But a new study by Federal Reserve economists Christopher Kurz, Geng Li and Daniel Vine throws cold water on these and other generational explanations. It suggests that most potential young buyers couldn’t afford a new vehicle or didn’t want to incur the debt and operating expenses of doing so. Economic considerations dominated.