Generally, we are very optimistic. The foundation has been laid to speed over to a low-carbon economy. What stands in our way? Mostly ignorance of the financial benefits of transitioning as quickly as possible. Though this piece profiled progress in the UK, we think it is very indicative of work being done in most countries and communities.
Sure, as Business Green points out here (and, Happy Birthday to them), there will be bumps on our journey. Yet, momentum is clearly on our side, and the awards of building a smarter planet are growing dramatically each day.
The corporate world played a huge part in pushing COP 21 to an accord. They will play an even bigger role in implementing those agreements, and goals, across the world.
To mark the relaunch of the BusinessGreen website after six years, we're asking leading figures for their view on what the green economy will look like in 2022 - first to gaze into their crystal ball is former energy and climate change secretary Ed Davey
Where will we be in six years? I'm broadly optimistic - but it may be a bumpy ride.
The big picture drivers are on the side of green business - from climate science to the Paris Agreement, from public opinion to the health case for tackling things like air pollution. But beware of vested interests!
To help look forward, consider first the last six years.
On an international scale, the reduction in the cost of solar has continued at a staggering pace: I believe this will prove to have been the most significant development of this century. Cheap solar gives us not just the means to tackle climate change - but ranks alongside clean water, mosquito nets and other tools, as the means of at last grappling with global poverty.
I think two things I and my party achieved in government also showed the possibilities for the green economy: first, the trebling of renewable electricity being produced in the UK and, second, leading the successful negotiations within the EU, for Europe's 2030 Energy and Climate Change package.
That 2030 agreement - massively under-reported in the UK media - means the EU has agreed to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions by at least 40 per cent by 2030, with a 27 per cent share of energy coming from renewables and a 27 per cent improvement in energy efficiency. It played a critical role in the run in to Paris, and with that UN agreement will underpin the foundations for global green business for decades to come.
The next six years
So the foundations for a great next six years for green business have been laid. But policies implemented since the election by the Conservative majority government show it may still be a rough ride. In fact, there have been so many depressing and damaging decisions it's difficult to know where to start - though three decisions were particularly insane, as they defy rationality.
First, the abolition of the Zero Carbon Homes standard. Slammed by those in the environmental, energy and building sectors as "short-sighted", "retrograde" and "damaging", frankly industry was being kind to the government. It was a costly shambles. This government's ideological opposition to regulation is highly damaging to business sectors where regulations actually help create markets and reduce costs.
Second, the decision to apply the climate change levy to renewables in the Budget was almost designed to make investors in renewables leave the UK: as the former Chief Economist of the Government said, it was a "potty" decision: green taxes on clean energy? Osborne is the dirty man of British politics.
And third, the axing of the carbon capture and storage pilots. This is both a huge waste of money and prevents the UK developing an industry where we are world leaders and have a strong comparative advantage. Another decision that was not based on evidence.
Where is there cause for hop?
But if the British government is intent on damaging British green business, there is better news from the rest of the world - from India's solar investments to China's impressive achievements. That means we're going to see other countries steal the lead, and Britain won't get industrial benefit from the future green economy, despite our current leadership. And if we leave the EU, our ability to influence European and global green initiatives will be reduced too.
Despite all this, the UK does have some great green businesses, entrepreneurs and innovators. I'm sure they will either find their way round the new hostile business environment or perhaps export their way forward.
And there are some remaining hopeful signs in the UK. Amber Rudd has had difficulty fending off Osborne on the green agenda, but her biggest success has been offshore wind: the door for greater offshore wind investment has been left ajar. This matters practically, because, there is no way the Conservative strategy of gas plus nuclear will provide the electricity we need in the timeframe we need it! I predict the Treasury will eventually realise this - and so long as the offshore sector keeps reducing its costs, as I am convinced they will, the sector will grow in the UK.
Elsewhere, there's also signs of hope from the community energy sector. As the author of Britain's first community energy strategy, I think this sector has the potential to rebuild political support for renewables. And that's one reason I joined Mongoose Energy, to work with experts in the sector to grow it more quickly and effectively than Whitehall thinks possible.
The sector responded with resilience to the removal of EIS tax relief - with just one month's notice! We've seen 28 community energy projects launched, raising £12.8m before the relief went. And projects continue to launch - BWCE (Bath), for example raised £1.6m in six weeks to the end of January, after EIS shut. And BEC (Bristol) has launched a bond offer to raise £2.7m.
Through community energy, we can then promote the green energy we need, and do this in a way that is disruptive to current business models - driving efforts to tackle fuel poverty, driving efforts to give a wider distribution of wealth and driving efforts to give greater competition to the big corporates that have dominated the market.
So my prediction? Green business can and will thrive, in many forms and markets. But don't rely on governments - especially the current UK one - to help you!
Ed Davey is former Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change and Chair of Mongoose Energy
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