Will Climate Change Make Foods Extinct?

Good follow up to yesterday's update on the plight and survival of bees.  Again, our impact on the climate is clearly endangering traditional food production.  From there what comes next for mankind and our overall global economic system is very ugly--including food shortages and major droughts. 

For some people just the threat to coffee production is enough to get them nervous.

Part of our response is to introduce new technology around water management, restoration of soil and using artificial growing environments--such as remodeled overseas containers--to supplement our food supply and, perhaps, bring it more local.  Perhaps the irony will be that we do, in fact, reduce production on major centralized farms but push our agricultural systems to get smaller, more nimble, innovative and local.

One thing we can not do is force more poverty and hardship on developing nations.  There we need global collaboration to safe guard what natural assets and life-sustaining systems they currently have in place, and expand that core competence from there.

Will Climate Change Make Foods Extinct?

By Rachel Nuwer

                     

Soybean yields will eventually decline in the US, even if farms change location.

In the US – the world’s largest producer of corn and soybeans – farms can move north to some degree, Schlenker says. But eventually, yields will likely suffer because the soil north of Iowa declines in quality – a legacy of glacial expansion. Other studies, including of wheat in India and maize in Africa, also found that there is a threshold above which yields sharply decline: crops can adapt and move, but only to a point. “What’s common to all studies is the finding that extreme heat is detrimental to crop growth, although exact cutoffs vary by crop,” Schlenker says. “If predictions for the end of the century are true, though, I think a lot of agricultural areas in the US will see significant hits.”

80% of coffee-growing zones in Central America and Brazil could become unsuitable by 2050 

Under current conditions, about 4% of the world’s croplands experience drought in any given year, but by the end of the century those conditions are projected to jump to about 18% per year. Some studies indicate that horticulture crops – generally, everything besides staples – may be impacted most severely, largely because they tend to be constrained to a smaller geographic area. Jarvis and his colleagues found that 80% of coffee-growing zones in Central America and Brazil could become unsuitable by 2050, for example, while climate change will likely have “profound impacts” on cocoa production in West Africa. “High quality chocolate will be less available in the future, and if you want it, you’ll have to pay a lot more for it,” Jarvis says.                      

This means that, for those who can afford it, some foods will simply cost them more in the future. But for poorer people, those same price jumps will likely cause certain foods to go extinct from their diets. “The more you reduce, the shorter the supply, and the higher the price will jump,” Schlenker says.

High quality chocolate will be less available in the future, and if you want it, you’ll have to pay a lot more for it.

Another potential climate change-induced hitch is our dependence on commodity crops – wheat, soybeans, maize and rice – which currently provide humanity with 75% of its calories, either directly or indirectly through the animals we raise on those crops. Jarvis and his colleagues also found that, over the past five decades, the world has seen an increasing standardisation of diets; the foods we eat globally today are 36% more similar than they were in 1961. While this can be good news for the world’s poorest people who now consume more calories, protein and fat than in the past, homogeneity and over-dependence on a handful of staples leaves us vulnerable to threats such as drought, disease and pests – all of which are predicted to worsen in many parts of the world as a result of climate change.
                    

About 4% of the world’s croplands experience drought in any given year, but by the end of the century this figure is projected to jump to about 18% per year.

There are ways we could soften the coming blow to the global food supply, however. Like Farrant’s work with resurrection crops (see video at the top of this story), a number of companies, organisations and researchers, including the Gates Foundation and Monsanto, are aiming to create drought- and temperature-resistant crops through genetic engineering and conventional breeding. For now, the jury is still out as to how successful those endeavours will be. “The people at Monsanto who I’ve talked to are much more optimistic that they’ll be able to engineer heat-tolerant crops,” Schlenker says. “On the other hand, scientists at the USDA who I’ve spoken with are much more cautious.”

“Genetic engineering is one solution that we should keep developing, but it’s not necessarily a panacea that will solve everything,” Jarvis adds. “The evidence gathered over the last 10 years is that it hasn’t totally revolutionised agriculture.”  

Until genetic engineering comes to fruition, other strategies might also help in some places, including applying more fertiliser, implementing better irrigation, using machinery that gets crops out of the field faster or installing storage facilities to stave off spoilage. “Many places could benefit a great deal just by using technologies that already exist,” Walsh says. “General agronomic management can go a long way toward mitigating changes.”

Finally, diversifying our diet away from heat-sensitive wheat, corn, rice and other crops could also help. “We’ve seen profound changes in the last decades in what we eat largely as a result of international trade, and I think that trend toward more diversification will continue,” Jarvis says.

“Depending on a greater number of plant species creates a more resilient, less risky food system – and one that provides a broader range of nutritional requirements.”